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- Стр. 1198/1273
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If
we
assume
as
the
historians
do
that
great
men
lead
humanity
to
the
attainment
of
certain
ends
--
the
greatness
of
Russia
or
of
France
,
the
balance
of
power
in
Europe
,
the
diffusion
of
the
ideas
of
the
Revolution
,
general
progress
,
or
anything
else
--
then
it
is
impossible
to
explain
the
facts
of
history
without
introducing
the
conceptions
of
chance
and
genius
.
If
the
aim
of
the
European
wars
at
the
beginning
of
the
nineteenth
century
had
been
the
aggrandizement
of
Russia
,
that
aim
might
have
been
accomplished
without
all
the
preceding
wars
and
without
the
invasion
.
If
the
aim
was
the
aggrandizement
of
France
,
that
might
have
been
attained
without
the
Revolution
and
without
the
Empire
.
If
the
aim
was
the
dissemination
of
ideas
,
the
printing
press
could
have
accomplished
that
much
better
than
warfare
.
If
the
aim
was
the
progress
of
civilization
,
it
is
easy
to
see
that
there
are
other
ways
of
diffusing
civilization
more
expedient
than
by
the
destruction
of
wealth
and
of
human
lives
.
Why
did
it
happen
in
this
and
not
in
some
other
way
?
Because
it
happened
so
!
"
Chance
created
the
situation
;
genius
utilized
it
,
"
says
history
.
But
what
is
chance
?
What
is
genius
?
The
words
chance
and
genius
do
not
denote
any
really
existing
thing
and
therefore
can
not
be
defined
.
Those
words
only
denote
a
certain
stage
of
understanding
of
phenomena
.
I
do
not
know
why
a
certain
event
occurs
;
I
think
that
I
can
not
know
it
;
so
I
do
not
try
to
know
it
and
I
talk
about
chance
.
I
see
a
force
producing
effects
beyond
the
scope
of
ordinary
human
agencies
;
I
do
not
understand
why
this
occurs
and
I
talk
of
genius
.
To
a
herd
of
rams
,
the
ram
the
herdsman
drives
each
evening
into
a
special
enclosure
to
feed
and
that
becomes
twice
as
fat
as
the
others
must
seem
to
be
a
genius
.
And
it
must
appear
an
astonishing
conjunction
of
genius
with
a
whole
series
of
extraordinary
chances
that
this
ram
,
who
instead
of
getting
into
the
general
fold
every
evening
goes
into
a
special
enclosure
where
there
are
oats
--
that
this
very
ram
,
swelling
with
fat
,
is
killed
for
meat
.
But
the
rams
need
only
cease
to
suppose
that
all
that
happens
to
them
happens
solely
for
the
attainment
of
their
sheepish
aims
;
they
need
only
admit
that
what
happens
to
them
may
also
have
purposes
beyond
their
ken
,
and
they
will
at
once
perceive
a
unity
and
coherence
in
what
happened
to
the
ram
that
was
fattened
.
Even
if
they
do
not
know
for
what
purpose
they
are
fattened
,
they
will
at
least
know
that
all
that
happened
to
the
ram
did
not
happen
accidentally
,
and
will
no
longer
need
the
conceptions
of
chance
or
genius
.
Only
by
renouncing
our
claim
to
discern
a
purpose
immediately
intelligible
to
us
,
and
admitting
the
ultimate
purpose
to
be
beyond
our
ken
,
may
we
discern
the
sequence
of
experiences
in
the
lives
of
historic
characters
and
perceive
the
cause
of
the
effect
they
produce
(
incommensurable
with
ordinary
human
capabilities
)
,
and
then
the
words
chance
and
genius
become
superfluous
We
need
only
confess
that
we
do
not
know
the
purpose
of
the
European
convulsions
and
that
we
know
only
the
facts
--
that
is
,
the
murders
,
first
in
France
,
then
in
Italy
,
in
Africa
,
in
Prussia
,
in
Austria
,
in
Spain
,
and
in
Russia
--
and
that
the
movements
from
the
west
to
the
east
and
from
the
east
to
the
west
form
the
essence
and
purpose
of
these
events
,
and
not
only
shall
we
have
no
need
to
see
exceptional
ability
and
genius
in
Napoleon
and
Alexander
,
but
we
shall
be
unable
to
consider
them
to
be
anything
but
like
other
men
,
and
we
shall
not
be
obliged
to
have
recourse
to
chance
for
an
explanation
of
those
small
events
which
made
these
people
what
they
were
,
but
it
will
be
clear
that
all
those
small
events
were
inevitable
.
