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- Артур Конан Дойл
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- Tales of Terror and Mystery
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- Стр. 93/137
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"
Whatever
may
be
the
truth
,
"
said
he
,
"
it
must
depend
upon
some
bizarre
and
rare
combination
of
events
,
so
we
need
have
no
hesitation
in
postulating
such
events
in
our
explanation
.
In
the
absence
of
data
we
must
abandon
the
analytic
or
scientific
method
of
investigation
,
and
must
approach
it
in
the
synthetic
fashion
.
In
a
word
,
instead
of
taking
known
events
and
deducing
from
them
what
has
occurred
,
we
must
build
up
a
fanciful
explanation
if
it
will
only
be
consistent
with
known
events
.
We
can
then
test
this
explanation
by
any
fresh
facts
which
may
arise
.
If
they
all
fit
into
their
places
,
the
probability
is
that
we
are
upon
the
right
track
,
and
with
each
fresh
fact
this
probability
increases
in
a
geometrical
progression
until
the
evidence
becomes
final
and
convincing
.
"
Now
,
there
is
one
most
remarkable
and
suggestive
fact
which
has
not
met
with
the
attention
which
it
deserves
.
There
is
a
local
train
running
through
Harrow
and
King
’
s
Langley
,
which
is
timed
in
such
a
way
that
the
express
must
have
overtaken
it
at
or
about
the
period
when
it
eased
down
its
speed
to
eight
miles
an
hour
on
account
of
the
repairs
of
the
line
.
The
two
trains
would
at
that
time
be
travelling
in
the
same
direction
at
a
similar
rate
of
speed
and
upon
parallel
lines
.
It
is
within
every
one
’
s
experience
how
,
under
such
circumstances
,
the
occupant
of
each
carriage
can
see
very
plainly
the
passengers
in
the
other
carriages
opposite
to
him
.
The
lamps
of
the
express
had
been
lit
at
Willesden
,
so
that
each
compartment
was
brightly
illuminated
,
and
most
visible
to
an
observer
from
outside
.
"
Now
,
the
sequence
of
events
as
I
reconstruct
them
would
be
after
this
fashion
.
This
young
man
with
the
abnormal
number
of
watches
was
alone
in
the
carriage
of
the
slow
train
.
His
ticket
,
with
his
papers
and
gloves
and
other
things
,
was
,
we
will
suppose
,
on
the
seat
beside
him
.
He
was
probably
an
American
,
and
also
probably
a
man
of
weak
intellect
.
The
excessive
wearing
of
jewellery
is
an
early
symptom
in
some
forms
of
mania
.
"
As
he
sat
watching
the
carriages
of
the
express
which
were
(
on
account
of
the
state
of
the
line
)
going
at
the
same
pace
as
himself
,
he
suddenly
saw
some
people
in
it
whom
he
knew
.
We
will
suppose
for
the
sake
of
our
theory
that
these
people
were
a
woman
whom
he
loved
and
a
man
whom
he
hated
—
and
who
in
return
hated
him
.
The
young
man
was
excitable
and
impulsive
.
He
opened
the
door
of
his
carriage
,
stepped
from
the
footboard
of
the
local
train
to
the
footboard
of
the
express
,
opened
the
other
door
,
and
made
his
way
into
the
presence
of
these
two
people
.
The
feat
(
on
the
supposition
that
the
trains
were
going
at
the
same
pace
)
is
by
no
means
so
perilous
as
it
might
appear
.
"
Having
now
got
our
young
man
,
without
his
ticket
,
into
the
carriage
in
which
the
elder
man
and
the
young
woman
are
travelling
,
it
is
not
difficult
to
imagine
that
a
violent
scene
ensued
.
It
is
possible
that
the
pair
were
also
Americans
,
which
is
the
more
probable
as
the
man
carried
a
weapon
—
an
unusual
thing
in
England
.
If
our
supposition
of
incipient
mania
is
correct
,
the
young
man
is
likely
to
have
assaulted
the
other
.
As
the
upshot
of
the
quarrel
the
elder
man
shot
the
intruder
,
and
then
made
his
escape
from
the
carriage
,
taking
the
young
lady
with
him
.
We
will
suppose
that
all
this
happened
very
rapidly
,
and
that
the
train
was
still
going
at
so
slow
a
pace
that
it
was
not
difficult
for
them
to
leave
it
.
A
woman
might
leave
a
train
going
at
eight
miles
an
hour
.
As
a
matter
of
fact
,
we
know
that
this
woman
DID
do
so
.
"
And
now
we
have
to
fit
in
the
man
in
the
smoking
carriage
.
Presuming
that
we
have
,
up
to
this
point
,
reconstructed
the
tragedy
correctly
,
we
shall
find
nothing
in
this
other
man
to
cause
us
to
reconsider
our
conclusions
.
According
to
my
theory
,
this
man
saw
the
young
fellow
cross
from
one
train
to
the
other
,
saw
him
open
the
door
,
heard
the
pistol
-
shot
,
saw
the
two
fugitives
spring
out
on
to
the
line
,
realized
that
murder
had
been
done
,
and
sprang
out
himself
in
pursuit
.
Why
he
has
never
been
heard
of
since
—
whether
he
met
his
own
death
in
the
pursuit
,
or
whether
,
as
is
more
likely
,
he
was
made
to
realize
that
it
was
not
a
case
for
his
interference
—
is
a
detail
which
we
have
at
present
no
means
of
explaining
.
I
acknowledge
that
there
are
some
difficulties
in
the
way
.
At
first
sight
,
it
might
seem
improbable
that
at
such
a
moment
a
murderer
would
burden
himself
in
his
flight
with
a
brown
leather
bag
.
My
answer
is
that
he
was
well
aware
that
if
the
bag
were
found
his
identity
would
be
established
.
It
was
absolutely
necessary
for
him
to
take
it
with
him
.
My
theory
stands
or
falls
upon
one
point
,
and
I
call
upon
the
railway
company
to
make
strict
inquiry
as
to
whether
a
ticket
was
found
unclaimed
in
the
local
train
through
Harrow
and
King
’
s
Langley
upon
the
18th
of
March
.
If
such
a
ticket
were
found
my
case
is
proved
.
If
not
,
my
theory
may
still
be
the
correct
one
,
for
it
is
conceivable
either
that
he
travelled
without
a
ticket
or
that
his
ticket
was
lost
.
"
To
this
elaborate
and
plausible
hypothesis
the
answer
of
the
police
and
of
the
company
was
,
first
,
that
no
such
ticket
was
found
;
secondly
,
that
the
slow
train
would
never
run
parallel
to
the
express
;
and
,
thirdly
,
that
the
local
train
had
been
stationary
in
King
’
s
Langley
Station
when
the
express
,
going
at
fifty
miles
an
hour
,
had
flashed
past
it
.
So
perished
the
only
satisfying
explanation
,
and
five
years
have
elapsed
without
supplying
a
new
one
.
Now
,
at
last
,
there
comes
a
statement
which
covers
all
the
facts
,
and
which
must
be
regarded
as
authentic
.
It
took
the
shape
of
a
letter
dated
from
New
York
,
and
addressed
to
the
same
criminal
investigator
whose
theory
I
have
quoted
.
It
is
given
here
in
extenso
,
with
the
exception
of
the
two
opening
paragraphs
,
which
are
personal
in
their
nature
:
